Why (besides horrific depreciation) I will never buy another new car

For those that haven’t read the rest of my posts, I work in the automotive industry.  If you all take my advice, I’ll be unemployed (just kidding – nobody actually reads this site).  I’m not so sure that would be a bad thing right now.  There are financial reasons why brand new cars can be a bad idea for some people.  They are a bad financial move for anybody, but some people can afford to make bad financial decisions.

This article is not about that.  It is about the massive and expensive mandatory content of new cars I can’t deal with.

I went into mechanical engineering as a “gearhead” who loved cars.  Past tense intentional.  That was 25 years ago.  They’ve slowly evolved into bloated, disconnected safety cages on wheels and I’m having none of it.

Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate how good new cars are in terms of quality and reliability.  Even power is better than ever.  The lowest cost ones have more options than the loaded ones did 25 years ago.

They are all also very “safe,” compared to cars 25 years ago.  “Safe” in scare quotes since they are only safer in the event of a collision.  I will argue they are less safe from the point of view that you are more likely to experience a collision in a new car than in a car 25 years ago.

Again, don’t get me wrong:  I have no problem, at all, with “safe” cars.

My problem is this:  All of them have to be safe.

That used to be Volvo’s thing.  Volvo made the cars for people whose primary concern was vehicle safety.  Now – every car has to be a Volvo.  Says who?  Says NHTSA.  Says FMVSS.  You can’t say no to NHTSA.  You can’t say no to FMVSS.  Funny:  I can’t seem to recall when we had the vote to make all new cars just as safe as Volvos or face the death penalty.

Think I exaggerate?

Try building and selling a new car in the United States that doesn’t meet NHTSA’s and FMVSS’ volumes of rules and regulations (again – that nobody voted for) and see what happens next:

If you don’t turn yourself in – men with guns will come for you.  These men will be trained killers.  If you fail to comply with these men – they will kill you.  These men will feel no remorse.  These men will be lauded as heroes by a disconcertingly significant percentage of the population.  I don’t recommend it.

This mandatory “safety” comes at a price:  Weight and cost – enforced at gunpoint.

How much weight you ask?

This much weight:

Fat Cars

You can’t buy a new car without all this expensive, heavy, vision blocking, and almost never actually utilized safety equipment.  But you can:

  • Buy a ’34 Ford with daggers sticking out of the dashboard and drive it on the same roads.
  • Buy one of several 200 mph capable motorcycles and ride it on the same roads.
  • Climb up 3000 ft. sheer rock cliffs with no harness.
  • Cross the street not only without looking both ways, but without looking either way.
  • Drink until you blackout every night.
  • Skydive not only without any backup chute, but with just a piece of junk primary chute.

I could go on – forever.  And ever.  And ever.  You get the point.

If you think the things listed above also need to be banned, then you are the problem.

You are the reason cars cost so much.  You are the reason cars weigh so much.  You are the reason cars don’t get any better gas mileage than they did 25 years ago – despite major efficiency breakthroughs since.  You are the reason for 8 year new car loans.  You are the reason why you can barely see if there is anybody in the crosswalk while making a left turn in any new car.

You are reason why I’ll never buy a new car again.

And there’s nothing you can do about it.

Na-na-na-na-na!

 

Why “just do what you love” is almost always horrible career advice

Parents, don’t lie to your kids.  There are several factors that come into play when deciding a career path:

  1. Do what people are willing to pay for
  2. Do what you are competent at doing
  3. Do what you love

Doing what you love only makes sense if you are competent and people are wiling to pay for it.

Let’s say you are not only competent, but the very best in the world at whatever skill you have. You aren’t, but let’s assume that you are for now.   Let’s further assume you love performing this skill.

It still doesn’t guarantee success.  Life is rough.

If you are doing what you love, but are incompetent,  you are going to go broke by doing what you love.  Stop trying.  Do something else.  It’s OK.  We all stink at almost everything.  Find the thing you don’t stink at.  Start there.

Nobody cares what you love.  Nobody cares what you are competent at doing.  They only care what you can do for them.  Nobody owes you anything – stop thinking they do.

Almost everybody has unlimited wants, but only enough money to satisfy a very small fraction of them.  You are competing with every other thing people want or need.  You’ve got some stiff competition.

Ask yourself:  Do I owe some harebrained business that just opened up down the block for God only knows what reason my hard earned dollars?  When you answer honestly, you answer no.  No.  You don’t owe them anything.

Then why to you think they owe you?  “They” owe you nothing.  By purchasing from you, they are foregoing all the rest of their unlimited wants or needs and instead buying from you.

When you have a skill that relatively few people (or increasingly, robots) can do, and people are willing to pay for it, you are in decent shape.  Even if you hate it, don’t dismiss it.  Be careful hating your job too much.  There’s a reason you get a paycheck.  It’s not supposed to be rainbows and unicorns all the time.

That’s why they’re called colleagues, not necessarily friends.

Your employer thinks hiring you will add more money to their bottom line.  That’s why they hired you.  If they are a smart employer, it’s the only reason they hired you.  They’d like to pay you nothing, but have to pay you about what people who can do what you can do are being paid.  Otherwise – you’d go down the street to their competition and be paid more.

You think the amount of money you are being paid by your employer is better than what you could get from their competition down the street.  That’s why you work there.  If you are a smart employee, it’s the only reason you work there. You’d like to paid a lot more, but you have to settle for about what people who do what you can do are being paid.  Otherwise – you’d go down the street to their competition and be paid more.

Notice the common theme here:  The business and the employee side of the story both end in the same sentence.

The biggest mistake people make is thinking that this relationship is employer vs. employee.  This is absolutely wrong.  It is employee vs. employee and employer vs. employer.

Employees dream about an interview where they are the only applicant.

Employers dream about a business where they are the only employer in town.

Both your greedy dreams are squashed by competition.

Deal with it.

Company A is not at war with Joe in accounting.  Company A is at war with company B.

Joe in accounting is not at war with company A.  Joe, who holds a degree in accounting,  is at war with Janice, who holds a degree in accounting.

If you actually find something that people are willing to pay for, that you are competent at doing, and you love doing, you’ve hit the lottery.  Almost nobody gets this.  It is sad but true.

Nobody should plan on hitting the lottery.  Hence the title of this blog.

 

 

Beware of charts that are trying to make you outraged, afraid, or sell you something

We’ve all seen them:  Articles with charts expressing how “We really need to do something about A!”  Any moron looking at this chart can tell you that A causes B.  Case closed.  Double burned.  Owned.  Fact-checked.

To use an example from the link:  We really need to eliminate U.S. spending on science, space, and technology!  Any moron can tell you that U.S. spending on science, space, and technology causes suicides by hanging, strangling, and suffocation.

Or maybe it’s suicides by hanging, strangling, and suffocation causing increased U.S. spending on science, space, and technology?

For a decade, these were correlated over 99.7%.  That correlation level is unheard of – even for stuff we know for certain is correlated 100%.

Correlation does not equal causality.  To prove causality, you absolutely need correlation.  This is true.  However, just because you have correlation doesn’t mean anything at all.  You have correlation eh?  Good for you.  You want a cookie with that correlation?

To believe correlation = causality is to believe everyone with the opportunity to murder someone must have murdered them.  They all did it:  The coworker,  The FedEx driver.  The spouse.  The gas station clerk.  Colonel Mustard.  All of ’em.

The media loves to play this trick on people.  Just because someone is on TV, wears nice clothes, speaks well, is passionate, and may even be attractive, doesn’t mean they understand statistics – at all.  Every reporter should have to learn this, but I’m afraid almost none do.

It may be too harsh saying they are “playing tricks,” because many truly believe what they are reporting.  Many are even passionate about it.  When people believe the lie they are propagating, that makes it all the more convincing for the rest of us.

You don’t have to be a good actor when you actually believe the lie you are reporting.

Most charts are trying to make you angry, afraid, or sell you something.  This correlation and causality can fool you – especially when they seem somehow related.

I read this somewhere but can’t remember who to credit, but here is the paraphrase:

Lets say you see a shocking graph showing a high correlation of people who live near high power transmission lines with cancer.  Therefore:  Power lines cause cancer.  Sorry – not so simple:

High power transmission lines are considered an eyesore.  This is not controversial.  Therefore, houses near high power transmission lines sell for less that those without them.  Lower income people generally buy lower cost houses.  This is also not controversial.  Lower income people, on average, also have more unhealthy habits that higher income people, on average.  I’m not saying all, person about to “burn” me with the all caps quadruple exclamation point comment.  Take it easy:  Step away from the caps lock button.

So is it the unhealthy habits or the power lines (or something completely unrelated to either) that’s giving them cancer?

You need more data to know anything.  You need to look at multiple variables to know anything.  A single variable “study” is for suckers.  Your one, single variable chart doesn’t prove a darn thing.

If your variable is people, then it gets even tougher.  Each person has a unique history.  Say you are measuring the impact of (for example) drug A on health characteristic B.  Group C is on placebo and group D is on drug A.

Group C has many people with unhealthy habits.  Group D has few people with unhealthy habits.  The people running the studies ask about health habits though questionnaires, but can’t possibly cover them all.  The people answering the questionnaires may be honest or they may lie.  The people answering may not remember.  Each person has a unique, little known  genetic history and lives in unique, little known environmental conditions as well.

In the end, the group on drug A (group D) had 3x as many favorable results as group C, on placebo.  Therefore:  Drug A is 300% as effective as placebo at improving health characteristic B.  “Ask your doctor about expensive drug A!”

Lunacy.

Comparing one person to the next to try to predict what effect A has on their health, behavior, or other trait is challenging to put it mildly.  If a human study is not also double blind, then it is utterly useless.

I’m not saying all medical studies are useless, but you need to look at far more than a single variable to determine anything at all.  Show me a dozen different variables.  They better all point the same direction.  The variables studied on one should ideally have financial interests opposite the financial interests of the variables studied on the other.

When that happens, and they’re both pointing the same direction, then you’ve got my interest.  Then I might consider investigating further.  Until you show me this, I don’t care what your study says.

Also – You must be able to document, for each data point:

  • Where was it gathered?
  • Was the instrumentation collecting each data point the same as the rest?
  • Was the instrumentation calibrated?
  • Did the environment around the instrumentation change over time?
  • If the environment around the instrumentation changed over time, does it impact the data?
  • What is the error band around each data point?
  • Are you are looking at raw data or smoothed data?
  • If smoothed data, how was smoothing applied?
  • Were there any “adjustments” performed?
  • If so, why was the data “adjusted?”

And in general:

  • Who paid for the data to be collected?
  • Does the data collector have a vested interest in the data pointing a certain direction?
  • Is the data collector employed by someone who has a vested interest in the data pointing a certain direction?
  • Who benefits (or is harmed) if I believe this?
  • Who benefits (or is harmed) if I don’t?
  • Why was the starting date chosen (for data changes over time)?
  • Why was the end date chosen (for data changes over time)?

Until you know all these things, you really don’t know anything about that chart.  You have absolutely no business being outraged by it, let alone protesting about it.

You don’t know anything and neither do I.  Quit being a sucker who believes you actually do.

Do you know who’s smarter than you?  You – 5 years from today.  Do you know who gets it wrong more often than not?  Most people.  Even most “smart” people.

See:  Salem witch trials.  Bloodletting.  Leeches.  Cocaine as a miracle drug.  The Nazi party.  All manner of religious persecutions over time.

The cool kids are stupid.  Stay away from them.  Don’t even let the smart kids tell you what to think.  They get it wrong an awful lot.  Think for yourself.

Don’t buy stuff you don’t need

Social media is serving a higher purpose:  Trying to sell you things.  Most of these things you don’t need.

Social media knows the sites you visit, what you buy, what you “like,” what you “hate,” where you go, who you know, what you read, what they read, where you live, what you drive, what you wear, what you order, and 1001 other things about you.  It then targets ads trying to sell you things based on all these factors.

Since it knows this much about you, it has very high success rate showing you ads for stuff you’re interested in.  It’s not magic.  It’s also not serving some higher noble purpose trying to “connect” you to people.  It is trying to empty your pockets by making you compete with everybody else on the planet in some global “who has the most stuff they don’t need” competition.

Here’s something else:  Those “friends” on your Facebook page know about as much about you as a random HR administrator reading your resume knows.

Most people don’t post the stuff they’re not proud of, let alone ashamed of.  They don’t post all of it.  Many don’t post any of it.  All this bling, fancy vacations, nice cars, expensive clothes, beautiful people, and impressive stuff is just that.  It is likely the very best of these people’s lives – which is really kind of sad.

If you are feeling inferior to your “friends,” ask yourself these questions:  Do you know the most embarrassing moment in their lives?  Do you know their actual habits?  If you ask them for a favor, can you count on them to help you out?  Are they polite?  Are they respectful in public?  Would they have your back if you were in an unpopular position?

Knowing these things makes a friend.

Knowing what kind of car they just bought doesn’t tell you anything useful.   Neither does the fact that you both “hate mean people.”

You are almost certainly putting too much weight in the opinions of strangers.  If you care one bit about what your Facebook “friend” thinks about what you just bought, then you are the mark.  Congratulations on being duped.  Facebook saw you coming a mile away.

If you really want to experience a “high,” get out of debt.

This will make your life better in so many ways.  Drive the slightly older car.  The shiny new one is sweet, but wouldn’t being able to tell your job “no thanks, I’m done with you” a few years sooner feel better?  Wouldn’t being able to pay your bills (even a year after you unexpectedly lost your job) feel better?

If you get a better job, don’t feel the need to get a better car.  Keep the same car you had and pocket the rest.  You don’t “deserve” a better car.  You just want one because you make more money now.  And let’s face it:  new cars are cool.  If you get an unexpected bonus, don’t spend any of it.  Pack your lunch.  Don’t buy bottled water – ever.  If you must smoke, stuff your own.  If you drink, don’t do it at a bar.  Do it at home instead.

Or do none of this:  Just don’t come crying to me when you find yourself perpetually broke.

Don’t get me wrong.  I’m not some anti-capitalist advocate wanting to ban private property.  Buy what you want.  If it makes your life truly more efficient and better, then buy it.  If it really makes you happy, and you can actually afford it, then by all means buy it.  There are more products available to the masses today at lower prices than ever before.  This is a good thing.  It is a miracle.  I’m no luddite wanting to go back to the days of the Sears catalog – believe me.

There also just so happens to be a bunch more stuff nobody actually needs that a billion people are being targeted to buy via ads on social media.  Ignore these ads.

The problem comes when you think that some thing you buy is going to turn you from sad to happy.  It won’t.  Talk to real people if you feel sad.  We all feel sad from time to time.  Talking to real people in real time will make you feel better.

Stop comparing yourself to that other guy.  Stop competing.   You can’t win.  That’s the scam.  You will never win.  Compete instead with yourself.  Try to beat you today in one week.  Make yourself better.  That’s the only way you can win.

 

 

 

 

Cougar kills man – Bo and James engage in a battle of wits.

Some articles have nothing whatsoever to do with politics.  For example:  This one is about a man being killed by a cougar in Washington state.

It happens every time.  Has anyone else noticed that there is no subject that escapes the gravity of national politics today?

Seems poor Bo couldn’t help himself.  Bo sees politics in everything.  James fired back.

Bo Comment

Bo hopes that somebody, anybody, from a political party he disagrees with, died a horrifically painful death that day.  He is so proud about his wish that he thought it appropriate to share with the world.

James could have took the high road and said something like “Seek help Bo,” but instead decided to take the bait and go low himself.

I’m not quite sure why James decided to add quotes around “dimwitted, shallow, uneducated, ignorant, frightened little Trumptard,” except that perhaps he took that quote from somebody else.  James:  If this is the case, is that really the best insult you could think to borrow?  I’ve personally heard much, much better.

James couldn’t stop there though.  Had to bring abortion into the discussion.  Way to win friends and influence people.

Bo is definitely sick and twisted for wishing painful death on his political adversaries.  He might even be a violent psychopath.  However, I’m not sure how James deduced those insults.  There are plenty of violent psychopaths who are quick witted, deep, educated, and brave.  Perhaps he’s one of those types of Trumptards.

Uneducated and ignorant?  And this is the quote James decided to borrow?

If James was just taking a page from the standard Trump supporter insult book, then he totally forgot to add racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, transphobic, islamaphobic, and misogynistic.  And orange.

Bo got 4 thumbs up, but 9 thumbs down (3 thumbs down I’m sure are James’ and the 2 people who thumbs upped James’ comment).

James got 2 thumbs up.

And the winner is:  Nobody

Bo thinks he “totally burned” all the liberals while James thinks that Bo “got owned.”

What is clear from this exchange is that both Bo and James need to stop paying attention to national politics completely, drop the smartphones, and walk away slowly with their hands in the air.  Do something productive.

Fix the 20% of the things in your life that you do actually have the slightest bit of control over.

Bo and James could expend 756,000 cycles of “burns” and “owns” and be neither more burned nor owned that they were this morning.  If you truly believe that once “your person” sits in the white house, your life will be that much better, I’m afraid you’re going to be very disappointed when they actually do.

And that jerk that cut you off this morning:  I bet they were totally a member of your team.  Bo’s team stinks.  James’ team stinks as well.  Its just that one stinks like skunk and the other stinks like body odor.  They all stink.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who Benefits?

Cui bono?  Lawyers should not be the only ones asking this.  Everyone should.

Now there’s a question that gets little respect. Who benefits if I read this article and believe every word?  Who benefits if I don’t believe anything?

What are the crowds of commenters saying? If almost everybody else is saying some version of A, then A must be correct – right?  Wrong.  “Most people” are wrong more often than you’d think.  “Most people” on the internet comment boards are idiots.

Just look at what “most people” believed about a hundred years ago:

Cocaine was the miracle drug.  It cured everything.  Not only did “most people” believe it, but one of the very smartest subsets of “most people” believed it:  Doctors.

“Most people” or even “Most very very smart science kind of people” should not influence your opinion at all.

Ask me why I always question “mainstream medical science.”  Especially when there is fortune unimaginable to the doctors of a hundred years ago available to insurance and pharmaceutical companies today.  Statins, I’m looking at you kid.  I love cholesterol, and want more of it.  Yummy.

Just look at these comment sections and Twitter feeds.  I’ve never been on Twitter, but I have read the feeds from my colleagues.  They look exactly like internet comments but somehow – even dumber.

How can I say most people are idiots?  How dare I say such things!

For one thing, almost nobody knows how to handle money.  Yet almost everyone likes money, and seems to want more of it.  The majority of people will blow every dollar they make and then some.  This applies if they make $8,000 a year, $80,000 a year, or even $800,000 a year.  Your 401k isn’t going to cut it.  You need to save past this.

See my first post below.  I’m sure you have a very sad story as justification for why you can’t save anything.  I can guarantee you there is a story twice as sad as yours, but somehow, this person did manage to save money.  Above that, there is a story twice as sad as that person’s, and even they managed to save money.  And look, over here – there is a story twice as sad as even that person’s, and still they managed to save.

So in a quick search, you can find a person with a story eight times as sad as yours, but this person made it.

Everybody is trying to sell you something.  You don’t need the vast majority it.  You don’t need almost any of it.  It is not going to make you happier, despite how happy and beautiful the people paid to sell it to you look.  And they do look happy and beautiful don’t they?  It is not going to make your life that much more convenient, despite how gosh darn convenient the happy beautiful people paid to sell it to you make it look. Continue reading “Who Benefits?”

Who weeps for the straw man?

Dear everyone on the planet,

I must confess a guilty pleasure:

I am addicted to the comment section of internet articles. I rarely participate in the comments myself, but I’m consistently amazed at how much weight people place in the opinions of complete strangers.

I have never used Twitter. I have never used Facebook.  If I had my own business, I would definitely use them to advertise.  Otherwise, I don’t exactly see the point.

Here is a piece of free advice. I offer this advice with a 100% money back guarantee:

You will never change the opinion of a complete stranger looking to make themselves look superior to you in front of other complete strangers.  You will not do it via logic, reason, or rational persuasion. You will not do it by offering a sad story.  You will not do it by throwing personal insults.

Your time would be better spent trying to persuade the wall in front of you that your position is the correct one.

You are wasting your life. You are opening yourself up to excess happiness and depression, both undeserved.

Guess what:  That person you “totally burned” thinks you were the one who “got owned.”

Their team high fives them and your team high fives you.  Everybody won and everybody lost.

Wow – how productive.  You might want to start a side business digging holes one day, and then filling them in the next.  This could really take you places.

Twitter and Facebook are merely different avenues one takes to the comment section on the internet.  There is nothing new here folks.

This site is dedicated to seeking out the biggest massacres of straw men on the sites I frequent.  I welcome comments myself.

I will do my best to stay out of politics.  However, it seems politics has infected every topic today.  Subjects that had been utterly noncontroversial even 3 years ago are divisive political subjects today.

For whatever sad story you present to bolster your position, I raise you a story twice as sad to bolster mine.